Planning is for Villains

Sometimes, when my players start to concoct a plan, I think back to sage advice from Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, the third-best fanfiction ever written.*

That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life. 

Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two. 

-Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, Chapter 24

I strive to keep this standard on the occasion that I join the game as a player. In any plan, don't depend on more than two things happening. 

Of course, more than two things are likely to happen in any game session. But you shouldn't count on them. The plan should be flexible enough to account for other possibilities, except for up to two things which absolutely must happen.

Beyond being generally more effective, it cuts down on long planning sessions. When my play reports say something like 'the players debated amongst themselves,' that's usually glossing over a half-hour of discussion.

On the GM side, of course, there's a lot more tolerance. You can exercise some behind-the-scenes fiat to make sure an event turns out the way you want, so long as the party isn't looking at it. Whether or not you should do that is a different issue.

Which reminds me of another quotation, following soon after the first.

And Father had finished by saying that plays like this were always unrealistic, because if the playwright had known what someone actually as smart as Light would actually do, the playwright would have tried to take over the world himself instead of just writing plays about it.

The GM, in all likelihood, is not as intelligent as the antagonists they will eventually end up playing, and can't really simulate their decision-making process. If you could accurately simulate the decision-making process of a genius, you would yourself be a genius. Luckily, omnipotent reality-bending powers are a valid substitute for intelligence, at least outside the scene.

"You took a convoluted and thoroughly unpredictable course of action? That's exactly what the villain wanted you to do!"

Villainous plans are not subject to the above restriction on their complexity, since they usually aren't expected to work. If I actually wanted my villainous plot to work, I would start by not being an obvious villain.

* First and second place are taken by Dante's The Divine Comedy and Milton's Paradise Lost respectively.

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